As reported in RMI Outlet, the Rocky Mountain Institute's blog, reductions in storage battery prices are opening new opportunities for transforming energy use patterns. The Tesla Powerball battery, expected to reach the market in 2016, has caused analysts to rethink projections of home lithium-ion battery costs and potentially shake up utility industry practices in a number of geographies. The cost reduction is fairly dramatic, as highlighted by this excerpt from the article:

In our modeling for both The Economics of Load Defection from April 2015and its predecessor, The Economics of Grid Defection from February 2014, our average battery price in 2015 was $547/kWh. Our models did not assume a price close to $350/kWh until 2022 (the $429/kWh price arrived in our models in 2018). This means Tesla’s batteries are seven years ahead of the prices we modeled. (The $250/kWh utility price point didn’t appear in our models until 2028, though we didn’t specifically model a utility-sized solution.) A seven-year accelerated price reduction means tens of millions of more customers will be able to cost-effectively install solar-plus-battery systems than we originally modeled in our analyses.

Some utility companies are already signing up to offer the Powerwall to customers with a variety of incentives, including Green Mountain Power in Vermont.

Harley Goes Electric

In a sign that likely bodes well for the future of electric vehicle, Harley Davidson is testing a prototype, Livewire, that could be a very interesting addition to the market if they decide to go forward with it. Looking forward to seeing how this develops. Unlike many of the near-silent electric two-wheelers, this one has a sound much like a jet turbine spinning up (kind of remind me of my old Saab 900 Turbo). If you like the possibilities here, talk to your local Harley Davidson dealer and express interest.

The Trike That Thinks Its an Electric Car

This entertaining hybrid, part three-wheeler, part bike, part electric car, goes by the nickname ELF. There's something intrinsically appealing about this little vehicle.

Grist did a quick profile on it and, if you're interested, a 7-minute video follows as well. A bit pricey ($5,495), but about as low impact as travel can be.

Specs in a nutshell:

The ELF can go up to 30 mph and carry up to 350 pounds, but doesn’t need any of that pesky car stuff like a license plate, insurance, or actual gasoline. The battery’ll charge in 90 minutes when plugged in, carrying you up to 14 miles — farther if you put your thighs to work.

NASA Study Points to Collapse of Civilization

A new study funded by NASA suggests that we're facing the collapse of industrial civilization within decades due to a combination of factors evaluated using a cross-disciplinary model, HANDY (Human And Nature DYnamical). Factors that were weighed in the study include: population, climate, water, agriculture, and Energy. Rather than being a rare occurrence, the study points to earlier historical precedents that show that "precipitous collapse" has been common in human history and the results often last centuries. The study has been accepted for publication in the peer-reviewed Elsevier journal, Ecological Economics. 

In evaluating the factors using the HANDY methodology, the study noted:

These factors can lead to collapse when they converge to generate two crucial social features: "the stretching of resources due to the strain placed on the ecological carrying capacity"; and "the economic stratification of society into Elites [rich] and Masses (or "Commoners") [poor]" These social phenomena have played "a central role in the character or in the process of the collapse," in all such cases over "the last five thousand years."

Will technology save us? The authors were skeptical:

"Technological change can raise the efficiency of resource use, but it also tends to raise both per capita resource consumption and the scale of resource extraction, so that, absent policy effects, the increases in consumption often compensate for the increased efficiency of resource use."

The conclusion: our "business as usual" approach cannot be sustained and governments, corporations, and consumers need to adapt and change to keep our worldwide civilization intact and functioning.

Energy Solutions—Amory Lovins Speaks at Bioneers

The annual Bioneers conference is often a revelation to attendees, offering fresh, pragmatic, sustainable solutions to the social, cultural, and environmental problems of our age. The last conference included a keynote address from Amory Lovins, the cofounder, chief scientist, and chairman emeritus of the Rocky Mountain Institute. It's worth viewing—the talk summarizes many of the key ideas of Reinventing Fire, Bold Business Solutions for the New Energy Era.



Watch for a YouTube posting of Lovins' talk at TED2014: The Next Chapter, to be held in Vancouver, BC, Canada this next week.

Storing Energy from Intermittent Power Sources

One of the enduring canards that is trotted out on a regular basis by those who disparage renewable energy (usually in favor of fossil fuels or nuclear) is that because the wind and sun produce energy intermittently, they have no value in the world's long-term energy strategies.

In truth, there are multiple methods of storing energy from daytime sunlight or windy days. One particularly good example is the Bath Country Hydro Pumped Storage Facility, operated by Dominion Power on the Virginia-West Virginia border. Energy stored as hydropower in one of the largest engineering projects ever implemented helps serve the energy needs of some 60-million people across 13 states.

A Think Progress article on the topic included this quote:

When Sean Fridley, the facility’s Station Manager, looks at the Upper Reservoir perched a thousand feet above his office, he doesn’t see drops of water. He sees a thousands-of-megawatts-deep block of power, a huge amount of stored potential energy — with more output than the Hoover Dam — that he can turn on with a flick of a switch.

Other innovative storage methods have been suggested, all based on proven technologies. A promising plan was presented in Scientific American in 2007 involving collection of solar energy in the US southwest desert, with distribution over high-voltage DC transmission lines  to compressed-air storage facilities around the country. The current cost of compressed-air storage is roughly half that of lead-acid batteries.

This video gives a nice overview of the storage facility in Bath County:
 



The next time someone tells you that intermittent energy sources can't solve our energy needs,   the evidence is abundant that they don't know half the story.

Solar Panels Sound Death Knell for U.S. Utilities

Energy supply and demand has been the dominating mechanism controlling prices in the public utility sector for a century and that model is threatened by the rise in solar power and other distributed renewable energy technologies, writes David Roberts in this Grist article. Reducing energy demand and improving energy efficiency are anathema to the utilities, by their own admission, as Roberts explains. 

The "money quote" in the article, taken from an Edison Energy Institute (EEI) report, states: 

The financial implications of these threats are fairly evident. Start with the increased cost of supporting a network capable of managing and integrating distributed generation sources. Next, under most rate structures, add the decline in revenues attributed to revenues lost from sales foregone. These forces lead to increased revenues required from remaining customers … and sought through rate increases. The result of higher electricity prices and competitive threats will encourage a higher rate of DER additions, or will promote greater use of efficiency or demand-side solutions. 

Increased uncertainty and risk will not be welcomed by investors, who will seek a higher return on investment and force defensive-minded investors to reduce exposure to the sector. These competitive and financial risks would likely erode credit quality. The decline in credit quality will lead to a higher cost of capital, putting further pressure on customer rates. Ultimately, capital availability will be reduced, and this will affect future investment plans. The cycle of decline has been previously witnessed in technology-disrupted sectors (such as telecommunications) and other deregulated industries (airlines). 

The bottom line is: don't expect the public utilities to be leaders in the shift to renewable energy. It's clearly not in their financial interests to do so. 

Creative Commons photo from USFWS Mountain Prairie. 

Cars now trump bikes in Beijing

Towns and cities that accommodate cyclists have always seemed more human and approachable to me. Davis, California comes to mind. Portland, Oregon is bike friendly and Minneapolis, Minnesota (when it's not bone-chllingly cold) is another good example. To me, it's a hopeful sign when people move outside the norm in our petroleum-fueled society and take transportation issues into their own hands (and industriously pedaling feet). 

As Noah Feldman notes in Bloomberg world, Beijing used to be a cyclist's paradise where bikes dominated the travel landscape. It was a less a case of intelligent city planning than pure necessity, as the economy of the region hadn't reached the explosive growth the prevails today and bicycles, for many, were the only affordable mode of transportation. Sadly, streets packed with bicycles have become a quaint memory as poor air quality and an massive influx of automobiles have transformed Beijing from cyclist paradise to nightmare. 

Of recent experiences in the city, Feldman said:

When I went to rent a bike upon my arrival in Beijing last week, people looked at me as though I were mad. As I tooled around the old neighborhoods near the Forbidden City, I was often the only nonmotorized thing in sight. There were bike lanes, all right, but they were populated only by motorbikers and the occasional fellow intrepid Westerner. On the back streets, I saw a few older Chinese cyclists, wearing expressions of thorough disgust. Meanwhile, Boston, like lots of other U.S. cities, has become a reasonable place to bicycle. I still wouldn’t recommend it to the faint of heart, but as long as you bike defensively, you feel like a member of a forward-looking tribe of change agents.

Initiatives are being launched in towns and cities around the world to encourage biking, but Beijing offers a clear example of what happens when automobiles trump bikes.

Electric cars slowly become a reality

Often praised for innovative engineering, but also maligned for over promising and and under delivering, Tesla Motors Inc. has realized two-thirds of their original vision with the release of the Model S. A flurry of reviews, including this one in the Los Angeles Times, put the car up on a pedestal with the likes of the Audi A7 or Mercedes-Benz CLS. But, reviewers also note the issue that continues to dampen enthusiasm for electric vehicles: range anxiety. 

Until we reach a consensus in the U.S. over the need for charging stations, we'll continue to lag behind nations that are aggressively deploying charging stations. The European Union is embarking on a plan to deploy 8 million charging stations by 2020. 

Part of the problem is that a large contingent of our society is in total denial about the reality that resource depletion is inevitable and that peak oil is just around the corner. A post from the Peak Oil  news site summed up the prevailing attitude neatly: 

Who cares about how many wells must be drilled almost constantly to maintain some semblance of increasing production? Costs per well? Who cares? Keeping oil prices high to justify all that extra drilling and investment? We’ll figure something out soon enough….Rapid depletion of new wells in the tight oil formations of the Bakken and elsewhere? Can’t be bothered to worry about that! We’ll just drill more! 

Electric vehicles could be part of our future (rather than the 1/10 of 1 percent of auto sales in the U.S., as is now the case) if we have the foresight and will to create the infrastructure that will allow them to flourish.

Solar Flares and Nuclear Safety

Photo by Fernando Reyes Palencia

Power grid failure presents a serious risk to the operation of nuclear reactors, which require electricity to maintain cooling water circulation even when shut down. As demonstrated by the reactor meltdowns at the Fukushima reactor complex, if you lose power lines and suffer backup generators failures at he same time, the loss of cooling capabilities rapidly causes the situation to spiral out of control.

Besides the natural disaster impacts of earthquake and tsunamis, another natural phenomenon—solar flares—poses dangers unlikely to be factored into the accident trees that assess plant operational risks. Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), which peak during regular cycles of the sun, can potentially disrupt the energy grid and render nuclear plants unable to maintain coolant circulation far beyond the week that diesel backup generators are required to function. In Flare-up: How the Sun Could Put an End to Nuclear Power, Gar Smith writes:

A 2011 Oak Ridge National Laboratory report warned of a 33 percent likelihood that a solar flare could lead to “long-term power loss” over a nuclear reactor’s life. With 440 nuclear power plants in 30 countries, and 250 research reactors, there are nearly 700 potential Fukushimas waiting to be unleashed.

Faced with a grid collapse, nuclear plants must rely on backup power to cool reactor cores and spent-fuel ponds. But the Nuclear Regulatory Commission requires only eight hours of battery power and enough fuel to run emergency generators for a week. Restoring outside power to Fukushima’s damaged reactors was a daunting task even when Japan had a functioning grid to fall back on. If the Sun sends a geomagnetic tsunami sweeping across Earth, it could become impossible to provide any form of traditional power.

The failure of the Solar Shield Bill (H.R.668), which included provisions that could protect the grid against the threat of geomagnetic storms, illustrates how woefully unprepared we are to deal with the very likely possibilities of large-scale power blackouts. As Gar points out in his article:

The US could protect its grid by spending around $1 billion to “harden” 350 key EHV transformers and stock blast-proof warehouses with replacement parts. Transformers could be protected with ground resistors. Costing about $40,000 each, they could be installed on 5,000 critical transformers for less than $200 million – about one-tenth the cost of a B-2 bomber.

 

A Community Breaks Away from Coal

Dissatisfied with the direction of the utility company supplying their energy, citizens of Boulder, CO took matters into their own hands and passed ballot measures to create their own municipal power utility. As written in Yes Magazine:

The city’s current electricity supplier, Xcel Energy, is a large corporation that sources more than 60 percent of its power from coal. Colorado climate activists tried for years to persuade Xcel to transition from coal to renewables, arguing that the state’s plains, mountains, and 300 days of annual sunshine give it abundant potential for the development of wind and solar power. But they found Xcel’s take-up of renewables was frustratingly slow. Xcel is investing $400 million in its coal-powered plants, and its plans for renewables stops at just 30 percent in 2020, with no further increase until 2028.

If more communities follow this example, we might even become effective tackling global warming while demonstrating the power of genuine democracy in action.

 

Protecting Life on the Blue Marble

Sometimes we need a little perspective to get our priorities straight. As Bill McKibben points out in "The Great Carbon Bubble: Why the Fossil Fuel Industry Fights So Hard," we experienced the greatest weather extremes in recorded history in 2011, 14 weather disasters in the U.S. alone. And yet we have an entire political party in denial that there are any large-scale dynamics at work in the global weather system that potentially threaten our survival.

Why is the fossil fuel working so hard to spread denial about climate change? As in many things in life, follow the money.

Part of it’s simple enough: the giant energy companies are making so much money right now that they can’t stop gorging themselves. ExxonMobil, year after year, pulls in more money than any company in history. Chevron’s not far behind. Everyone in the business is swimming in money.

Still, they could theoretically invest all that cash in new clean technology or research and development for the same. As it happens, though, they’ve got a deeper problem, one that’s become clear only in the last few years. Put briefly: their value is largely based on fossil-fuel reserves that won’t be burned if we ever take global warming seriously.

The billions of dollars in profits earned by Chevron and ExxonMobil will build a lot of mansions for their highly paid executives. But, what's the point of a mansion if you don't have a habitable planet to build it on?

Irrational Disdain for Electric Vehicles

The mainstream media holds sway over much of public opinion and messages repeated over and over seem to become the reigning paradigm, engrained deeply into most everyone's consciousness. As Steve Harvey points out in The EV-haters guide to hating electric cars, the list of fallacies that are promoted in this way is long and continuous. An example Harvey provides is the typical EV-hater calling electric vehicles a sales flop despite one- and two-year waiting lists for most models.

To counter the many misconceptions, Harvey compiled a list of "truthy" facts and introduced it in this way:

Whatever the reason, the media often has an irrational disdain for electric vehicles. And a similar disdain is common among the general population too. The same EV-hating arguments are repeated ad nauseam in the media. After analyzing the key arguments of the EV haters, I have compiled what I believe is the first-ever "EV-Hater's Guide to Hating Electric Cars." If you really hate EVs -- and you know who you are -- then this Top 10 guide is especially for you.

Good information to have on hand the next time you get into an argument with an EV-hater.

Reflections of a Nuclear Power Engineer

In this article, reposted on CommonDreams.org, a nuclear engineer talks about his disenchantment with nuclear power because of safety issues and offers an insider view of inherent problems. He offers an interesting assessment of the probability and risk associated with nuclear plant operation:

He illustrates this by comparing driving on the Italian highway, the Autostrada, with running a nuclear power station. Driving on the Autostrada has a low risk to the general population. A possibility does exist that you will crash, and perhaps die as a result, but the consequences of the accident to the general society will be next to nil. That’s why countries let almost anyone drive. So a moderately high P times a very low C equals a small risk to society as a whole.

On the other hand, the chance of an earthquake and tsunami of the magnitude that hit Japan are quite remote, especially occurring in tandem, which makes for a tiny P. But the consequences — the C — of them imperiling a nuclear power plant are huge, leading to a much higher risk to society.

Voters in Italy are convinced. They just voted down plans to restart nuclear power in their country.

Designers find ways to tap wind power almost anywhere

A gizmag post, Power Flowers to domesticate wind turbines, explores the potential of the product of a Dutch design house, Nl Architects, to tap wind power closer to where it is needed.

While most of us will offer strong vocal backing for the construction of wind farms, that can soon change if someone suggests building one nearby. As a result, the tri-blade towers get exiled to the middle of nowhere – or even further away. Instead of having a few high performance giants scattered throughout the land, NL Architects proposes a structure that would bring a few less efficient turbines together and place them closer to the users of the power they generate.

The efficiency of the vertical-axis turbines used in this design is less than tri-bladed turbines, but more can be situated in a given location. The technology looks promising and deserves more investigation.

Smart meters encounter resistance in CA

Smarten up, people, urges a post in The TerraPass Footprint. Numerous consumers are balking at the smart meter installations the California utility, PG&E, is rolling out across the state. Privacy and electromagnetic sensitivity are two of the issues being cited by consumers. If a significant proportion of utility customers choose to opt-out, the value of the entire program—which can provide useful minute-by-minute information about electricity usage—can be significantly lessened.

The post's author, Erik Blachford, comments:

For those who aren’t familiar with the smart meters, the basic idea is to replace analog meters read by hand (er, by eye), with digital meters which transmit electricity usage information wirelessly and presumably more accurately back to the utility. This technology enables but does not automatically trigger a variety of new rate-setting possibilities, most notably time-of-day pricing. By the same token, it enables the utility to provide consumers with more detailed information about their energy use; this data can be helpful for consumers hoping to reduce their consumption or even just their bills (though there are other services which don’t involve smart meters which achieve some of the same goals). Finally, smart meters may eventually tie back into the smart grid, allowing utilities to manage power distribution better by optimizing power available from small, distributed energy sources.

The trade-off between individual rights and the greater good of the commons (through a more efficient energy distribution network that can accommodate micropower installations more easily) is a tough one. In this case, the greater good may be on the side of smart metering.

Why buy an electric vehicle? Consumers speak out . . .

With a growing number of electric vehicles (EVs) reaching the market, consumer preferences are being scrutinized in a serious way. A recent Web survey conducted by ZPryme Research and Consulting—as discussed in a Gizmag article—revealed what it might take to lure a future car buyer away from a fossil-fueled macine to an EV.

As might be expected, range and charging time were key concerns:

Within the very to somewhat likely within two to five years group, 33.7 percent said that 400 miles (644 km) would be a sufficient range, while 33.3 percent were willing to settle for 300 miles (483 km). When it came to acceptable charge times, 32.1 percent indicated 4 hours, 18.1 percent indicated 6 hours, and 20.0 percent would wait for 8. If it were possible to pay a premium to charge their cars faster, 87.4 percent said they would opt for it. The ability to charge one’s EV at home is also a big deal, with 93.2 percent describing it as very important.

The technology is getting there, but meeting some of these consumer demands is going to take some work and some of that work involves consumer education.

A city powered by waste

Kristianstad, Sweden is setting an example for the rest of the world, as highlighted in this NY Times article, Using Waste, Swedish City Cuts Its Fossil Fuel Use. After a ten-year effort, the city of 80,000 has cut off the use of oil, natural gas, and coal for heating and now relies on waste products from farming and food processing to generate biogas.

hulking 10-year-old plant on the outskirts of Kristianstad uses a biological process to transform the detritus into biogas, a form of methane. That gas is burned to create heat and electricity, or is refined as a fuel for cars.

Once the city fathers got into the habit of harnessing power locally, they saw fuel everywhere: Kristianstad also burns gas emanating from an old landfill and sewage ponds, as well as wood waste from flooring factories and tree prunings.

Though the lock on fossil fuel use in the U.S. appears to be unbreakable, sometimes workable solutions to our energy problems are right in front of our noses.

Triac is not Tesla, but it's not meant to be

Tesla may have the celebrity cachet and media spotlight, but the humble, three-wheeled Triac is clearly the more practical choice for a "Green Core" consumer looking for a $25,000, all-electric vehicle with an honest 100-mile range. In a siliconvalley.com article, Mike Ryan, president of the firm based in Salinas, CA that produces the Triac, says that the car is aimed at people who have a more environmentally conscious lifestyle.

Key among the features is a sophisticated system for predicting remaining range before a recharge is needed.

The Triac will include a Vehicle Efficiency Data Assistant -- VEDA -- interface to the battery management system as well as diagnostic and navigational data. VEDA is an electronic learning system that captures a person's driving habits and commute patterns to accurately predict miles left before recharging.

"Range anxiety is something that gives people a lot of concern," Ryan said. "Say I forgot to charge my car. I'm at lunch. I want to run an errand before I go home. Will I make it home?"

Options in the electric car market are getting more expansive. The Triac is an interesting home-grown option that favors practicality over panache—and for many buyers that's a plus.

Sahara Solar Breeder Project to turn sand to solar cells to electricity

An ambitious project sponsored by universities in Janpan and Algeria seeks to accelerate the production of energy from solar cell technology using silica and sunlight from the Sahara Desert. The objective is to first extract silica from the sand to create solar panels and then combine the panels to make solar power plants in the same geographic area. The plants would be used to power additional silica extraction and solar cell manufacturing, building exponentially on the energy potential with a target of providing 50 percent of the world's energy by 2050.

As detailed in a Gizmag.com article, the project is attempting to accomplish a number of things that haven't been done before.

Subscribing to the "give a man a fish and he eats for a day, but teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime" philosophy, another major aim of the project is to train scientists and engineers from developing countries. To that end, the project won’t just bring well-understood technology from developed countries, but will involve people from both developing and developed countries working together on R&D right from the outset.

“Because technology hasn't yet been established for making silicon from desert sand, then using it to make solar cells, our aim is to work together from the basic research stage, so we can discover and nurture talented scientists and engineers in Africa," said Koinuma.

More power to this project and a sincere hope that they meet their objectives.